Fxshanimeo

GOLD EASES TO NEAR 2-WEEK LOW AHEAD OF U.S.-CHINA TRADE DEAL 14 January 2020, 11:14 Gold eases to near 2-week low ahead of U.S.-China trade deal Gold prices plunged to their lowest in nearly two weeks as stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data and the imminent signing of a preliminary U.S.-China trade deal boosted investors sentiments. Data released earlier today showed Chinese exports rose for the first time in five months in December, while imports also surpassed expectations. Moreover, news that the United States has dropped Chinas designation as a currency manipulator added to the optimism. However, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer stated that the details of the deal will be made public prior to the signing ceremony on Wednesday. Spot gold declined 0.1 percent to $1,543.56 per ounce by 0821 GMT, having touched a low of $1535.78 earlier, its lowest since January 3. It recorded a high of $1611.27 per ounce last...

FXshanimeo: EURUSD STRUGGLES TO BREAK ABOVE 1.11500, MARKETS EYE US CPI DATA 14 January 2020, 12:15 Major resistance - 1.11780 EURUSD has halted its a minor jump of nearly 60 pips from low of 1.10851 amid US-China trade optimism. The sentiment got lifted after the US has removed China from the currency manipulator list. The demand for Safe-haven assets like yen, gold, and dollar got declined. The pair hits high of 1.11440 at the time of writing and is currently trading around 1.11315. Technically, near term support is at 1.1100 and any violation below will drag the pair down till l.10650/1.100.Major bearishness only below 1.100 levels. The major intraday resistance is around 1.1150 and any indicative break above targets 1.1180/1.1245/1.12885. The decline from 1.14122 will get over at 1.08848 only if pair breaks 1.12850. It is good to buy on dips around 1.1100 with SL around 1.10650 for the TP of 1.1245.

FXshanimeo: USD/TRY HALTS 4-DAY LOSING STREAK, INTRADAY BIAS BULLISH 14 January 2020, 12:38 The Turkish Lira retreated from a 4-week peak despite better-than-expected retail sales and industrial production.   Turkeys retail sales surged 18.5 percent year-on-year in November, following an upwardly revised 14.2 percent gain in the previous month.   While, industrial production rose 5.1 percent from a year earlier in November, accelerating from an upwardly revised 3.9 percent growth in the previous month.   USD/TRY is trading 0.3 percent up at 5.8863, having hit a low of 5.8530 on Monday, its lowest since December 17.   Momentum indicators are turning bullish - RSI strong at 50.53 and Stochs are biased higher.   Immediate resistance is located at 5.9052, any close above could take it above 5.9180 (10-DMA).   On the downside, support is seen at 5.8530 and break below could take it near 5.8390 (55-EMA). Recommendation: Good to buy on dips aro...

TURKISH INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RISES BELOW EXPECTATIONS IN NOVEMBER 14 January 2020, 12:43 Turkish industrial production rose below expectations in November. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, the industrial production grew 5.1 percent year-on-year in the month, a rise from 3.8 percent. Consensus expectations were for the industrial production to have risen 6.2 percent. Looking at the subsectors, the mining and quarrying index recorded a year-on-year rise of 7.2 percent, whereas the manufacturing counterpart saw a rise of 5.3 percent. On the other hand, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply index dropped 1.2 percent year-on-year. Durable consumer goods fell 13.1 percent year-on-year. Meanwhile, non-durable consumer goods and capital goods saw a rise of 5.2 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively. On a sequential basis, the industrial production rose 0.7 percent in November. Looking at the subsectors, the mining and quarrying index fell 3.1 percent mon...

CRYPTO TECHNICALS: BCH/USD ATTEMPTS 200-DMA BREAKOUT, TECHNICAL STUDIES TURN BULLISH 14 January 2020, 12:46 BCH/USD  chart - Trading View Exchange  - Coinbase Technical Analysis:  Bias turning Bullish GMMA Indicator:  Major Trend - Turning bullish; Minor Trend - Strongly bullish Overbought/ Oversold Index:  Overbought Volatility:  Rising Support:  272.40 (200-DMA);  Resistance:  302.86 (38.2% Fib) BCH/USD spikes on the day, trades 5.94% higher on the day at 282.82 at around 10:20 GMT. The pair has broken above 200-DMA and technical studies have turned bullish. Price action has broken above major moving averages and daily cloud, momentum with the bulls. GMMA shows bullish shift in short-term trend with short-term moving averages crossing over long-term moving averages. Further, the longer-term moving averages are also turning which if successful will see a new bull run. For now, close above 200-DMA eyes next major hurdle...

USD/TRY LIKELY TO RISE SHARPLY OVER COMING QUARTERS, SAYS COMMERZBANK 14 January 2020, 13:05 The USD/TRY currency pair is expected to rise sharply over the coming quarters amid Turkey’s long-term imbalances still proactively alive, according to the latest research report from Commerzbank. Once the US-Iran conflict appeared to de-escalate and the oil price gave up its gains, the lira staged a nice rebound from its early January lows. Turkeys balance of payment fundamentals, however, deteriorated in the latest data release, as did inflation fundamentals earlier in the month. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, Turkeys exports were down 0.6 percent m/m in November, while imports rose by 2.6 percent m/m; the trade deficit widened noticeably and the current-account recorded $1.1 billion deficit vs. $0.3 billion deficit in October on a seasonally-adjusted basis, the report added. In November, portfolio flow turned positive, which supported the balance of payments and the lira. But ...

FXshanimeo: BULLISH/BEARISH SCENARIOS OF USD/CNH, OTC OUTLOOK, TRADING & HEDGING STRATEGIES 14 January 2020, 16:34 The CNY FX has started its celebration of the Chinese New Year early this year with a decent dip of the USDCNY pair towards the 6.92 - 6.93 handle while the CFETS TWI has rallied by an impressive 0.8% YTD. On the back of its outperformance amid recent swings in risk sentiment and rising concerns over global geopolitical uncertainties, we note constructive equity inflows and suspected pickup in seasonal corporate dollar selling before the Lunar New Year as supportive factors. The near-term outlook for the CNY FX is arguably a constructive one as the supportive factors outlined above are not easy to fade and the corporate dollar selling is expected to continue until the Chinese New Year. In a sense, the risks around the forecast bias in the short-run are skewed to the downside, meaning the USDCNY pair could sit comfortably below our 1Q forecast at 6.98. Acc...

FXSHANIMEO: CAD/JPY HAMMER AT TRENDLINE SUPPORT DISREGARDS GRAVESTONE DOJI, MAJOR TREND THROUGH TRENDLINE RESISTANCE 14 January 2020, 13:20 CADJPY  major trend has been sliding through downtrend line (weekly chart) and minor trend is spiking with uptrend line (refer daily chart). Bulls have tested uptrend line support with hammer and bullish engulfing patterns, consequently, bounced back above 7 & 21-DMAs with bullish crossovers in the minor trend of this pair. Although bulls attempt to bounce back after testing trendline support, the minor trend still appears to be edgy on the overbought pressures and the failure swings were observed at the stiff channel resistance several times in the recent past. Consequently, bears bring swings back in channel. While there is no change in our long-term outlook, the major downtrend remains intact. On a broader perspective, the major downtrend of this pair which has been in the consolidation phase since December 2015 has now been...

FXshanimeo: CRUDE OIL’S DRIVING FORCES - WTI & BRENT TRADING AND HEDGING STRATEGIES 14 January 2020, 13:39 Crude oil briefly jumped above $70/bbl (Brent) on two occasions this past week as concerns over a potential war in the Middle East, raised the spectre of widespread damage to oil supply and spare capacity. Tensions escalated following the assassination of the Iranian General Soleimani on Jan 3rd by the US, but have since then deescalated. However, the team thinks Iran will continue its affront through a low intensity strategy and expect this to involve indirect attacks in the region, although it is clear markets will need to see sizable sustained production disruptions in order to bake in longer- lasting geopolitical risk premiums. The oil price reaction will ultimately depend upon the nature of any supply disruption vs available spare capacity, global oil inventories and the sensitivity of US oil production to changes in oil prices. In the latest report on th...

U.S. TREASURIES RISE AS INVESTORS AWAIT DECEMBER CPI, FOMC MEMBER WILLIAMS’ SPEECH 14 January 2020, 13:40 The U.S. Treasuries remained tad higher during Tuesday’s afternoon session ahead of the country’s consumer price inflation (CPI) for the month of December, scheduled to be released today by 13:30GMT and FOMC member Williams’ speech, also due today by 14:00GMT. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slipped 1 basis point to 1.839 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yield also edged tad 1 basis point down to 2.294 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year traded 1/2 basis point down at 1.580 percent by 11:35GMT. "We expect U.S. headline CPI inflation to rise to 2.3 percent from 2.1 percent, but for the core measure to hold steady at 2.3 percent. Inflation is not a particular concern at the Fed right now,"  Lloyds Bank commented in its latest research report. Policymakers will be watching to see how well the economy held up in Q4, with retail s...